You Can’t Escape the 15% in Philadelphia

About 8% of tenant placements made by Otter Property Management have resulted in an eviction filing during the tenancy.

I’ve been chewing on this number for a while now. I don’t really like it.

It doesn’t sound like a great marketing slogan. It doesn’t sound like it reflects the ability and attention to detail of our tremendous leasing team, our state-of-the-art screening system and software, or the experience we’ve built placing tenants in this city.

But it’s true. Our internal review of 910 placements, as of September 2026, puts us at about 8%.

I’ve been trying to improve that number for a long time. We keep refining our screening, improving verification, and reviewing what happens after move-in. Yet for the better part of a year, it feels like we’ve been bouncing off a floor.

I haven’t been proud to state it on sales calls. It hasn’t sat right with me because I truly believe our team is really good and we know what we’re doing.

So why does the number still feel high?

8% looks a lot different when you compare it to 15% across the city.

We did a deep dive with the help of AI to answer one question:

What percentage of licensed residential tenancies in Philadelphia will receive an eviction filing at some point during the tenancy?

We used a tenancy-flow model. It combines the city’s licensed rental inventory, vacancy and move-in estimates from Census data, and residential eviction filings. We adjusted for repeated filings against the same tenancy and considered differences in which rentals the datasets cover.

The point was to move beyond the usual annual filing rate. An owner placing a tenant wants to understand the risk across the entire rental relationship.

Annual court activity becomes an estimate of tenancy risk. Repeated lawsuits become one affected tenancy. And a number that looks manageable over one year becomes much more significant over several years.

Our working conclusion: 15%, with a preliminary range of 12% to 17%. That is a modeled estimate of tenancies receiving a filing, not the percentage of tenants physically removed from a property.

[Read the data and full methodology in our OPM article: insert published link.]

That puts our 8% at roughly half the estimated Philadelphia benchmark. The comparison provides context; it is not a controlled study of identical properties followed for identical periods.

A good screening process still operates inside the market where you bought the property.

In my view, the number one thing you can do to reduce eviction risk is have a well-maintained property in a desirable area.

The number two thing is thorough screening.

A desirable property gives you a deeper applicant pool and more choice. A tired property on a difficult block can leave you choosing among fewer applicants, even when the screening standards are exactly the same.

I would expect a nice condo near Rittenhouse Square to carry substantially less tenancy risk than a C-class rental on a weaker block in West Philadelphia.

A citywide average blends those very different assets. If some properties sit well below 15%, others must sit above it. My view is that some weaker rental markets could be closer to 30%. We have not measured that neighborhood rate, but it is the kind of risk I would consider when underwriting a difficult property.

The citywide average is not a ceiling on your property’s risk.

Rent per square foot can help describe where a property sits in the market. But increasing the asking rent on a neglected unit does not improve the asset. The property has to justify the price.

You cannot buy a high-risk rental and assume excellent screening will make it behave like a different asset.

I have confidence in our team and our system. We evaluate income, employment, identity, credit, payment patterns, and rental history. We distinguish documents that appear credible from information verified through a reputable third party. We keep refining our process based on what actually happens after move-in.

We have put real work into this. And I believe we have built strong screening standards.

But you can verify someone’s income today without knowing whether they will keep their job for the next five years. You cannot screen away every household disruption, illness, financial setback, or future decision.

For the properties we manage, I believe there is a practical floor to what screening alone can accomplish. Our experience suggests that getting materially below our current 8% may require a different property mix, rather than another round of tighter criteria.

Better screening can reduce risk. It cannot erase the risk built into the asset.

Too many investors are underwriting properties with numbers that leave this risk out:

Rent: $1,500. Vacancy: 10%.

Then they calculate their revenue off that line.

But that approach can quietly assume every occupied month is a paying month.

Occupied does not mean paid.

A tenant can live in your property while paying some rent, paying late, or paying nothing. Resolving that tenancy can bring unpaid rent, legal expenses, damage, and additional turnover costs.

Those losses need a place in your underwriting. If your vacancy and collection allowance already includes them, do not count them twice. But do not assume a generic vacancy percentage covers everything.

A tenancy filing rate does not translate directly into the same percentage of lost revenue. Some tenants catch up. Some pay partially. Some cases settle. Others leave an owner with a substantial loss.

The risk is not just whether a tenancy reaches court. It is what that outcome could cost you.

That deserves a conversation about the specific property, the neighborhood, the block, and the financial cushion you have built into the deal. It should affect what you are willing to pay and how much cash you keep available after closing.

Two properties advertising the same rent can carry very different risks. If your spreadsheet treats them the same, it may be giving you confidence the investment does not deserve.

You might tell yourself it will not happen to you because you meet applicants, shake their hands, visit their current homes, and call their landlords yourself.

Those steps can help. So can professional screening and good management. If you own a few properties, you might also go years without a filing.

That does not make the risk disappear.

You can mitigate it. You can get lucky. You cannot eliminate it.

Philadelphia’s median days on market fell to 25.7 days in September, down sharply from the high-40s in August. That is a strong signal that well-priced, properly presented properties are moving—but owners still need accurate pricing and a disciplined launch strategy because the market does not reward guesswork.

Leads per listing per day climbed to roughly 3.1 in September, well above the previous period. The demand is there, but attention is not the same as a signed lease or a closed deal—the next step is having a fast, consistent follow-up process that converts interest into action.

Philadelphia’s average apartment rent continued to trend upward, reaching approximately $1,780, while the number of on-market rentals declined from its spring peak. That combination points to a tighter rental market, but owners should stay realistic: strong pricing only works when the property, the tenant experience, and the operating process support it.

Philadelphia property owners should not wait for the 2027 tax bill to take action—review your valuation now, confirm the numbers, and determine whether you qualify for available relief programs. The current tax rate may be unchanged, but an increased assessment still affects your operating costs, so the process starts with paying attention and meeting the deadlines.

Philadelphia’s new antitrust law is now being tested in court through a lawsuit alleging that a corporate landlord used rent-setting software to influence rental rates. The case is still an allegation, but the message for owners and operators is clear: understand what data your software uses, document independent pricing decisions, and treat compliance as an operating system—not something to address after a lawsuit is filed.

Burlington’s planned $370 million investment and up to 2,000 jobs in University City is a meaningful vote of confidence in Philadelphia. The real test now is execution: move the project through the process, connect Philadelphians to the jobs, and turn those employees into sustained demand for SEPTA, local businesses, and surrounding neighborhoods.

Pizza menus on the mailbox. Restaurant flyers wedged in the door. Nobody picks them up, and eventually they’re blowing down the block.

Philadelphia has a simple fix: a free “Circular-Free Property” sticker. Register your address with L&I, then put the sticker on your mailbox or another spot visible from the street. Businesses that ignore it can be reported to L&I.

Request yours from L&I for free, or stop by the Otter Property Management office at 1728 Ridge Avenue and we’ll give you one.

It won’t stop every flyer, but it can help cut down the pile. One little sticker, less litter.